Quarterbacks put up the biggest raw point totals in fantasy — and are still the position you can usually wait on. In 1-QB leagues only one passer starts each week, and the drop-off from QB12 to a waiver-wire replacement is the flattest in fantasy, which is why value over replacement (VOR) pushes most QBs down the overall board. The exceptions are the dual-threat outliers: rushing production is scored 2.5× per yard and adds a stable weekly floor pocket passers can't match, so an elite rushing QB can justify an early pick even at a deep position.
Players our board ranks meaningfully higher than the market drafts them — the gap between VOR-based rank and public ADP is where draft value lives.
Tier breaks (T2, T3, …) mark real drop-offs in projected value — players inside a tier are close; between tiers the gap is big enough to change your pick.
| # | Player | Team | Proj pts | VOR | ADP | ’25 finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T1Josh Allen | BUF | 387 | 142 | 28.0 | QB1 |
| 2 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 330 | 84 | 81.1 | QB7 |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 302 | 57 | 135.8 | QB12 |
| 4 | T2Patrick Mahomes | KC | 302 | 56 | 104.8 | QB11 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 301 | 56 | 88.4 | QB4 |
| 6 | Bo Nix | DEN | 293 | 47 | 117.2 | QB9 |
| 7 | T3Justin Herbert | LAC | 289 | 43 | 109.7 | QB10 |
| 8 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 286 | 40 | 55.9 | QB20 |
| 9 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 282 | 36 | 90.4 | QB5 |
| 10 | T4Dak Prescott | DAL | 279 | 33 | 66.5 | QB6 |
| 11 | Drake Maye | NE | 272 | 27 | 50.2 | QB3 |
| 12 | Jared Goff | DET | 268 | 22 | 101.7 | QB8 |
| 13 | T5Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 259 | 13 | — | QB18 |
| 14 | Jaxson Dart | NYG | 246 | 0 | 118.9 | QB13 |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 243 | -2 | 70.7 | QB2 |
| 16 | T6Joe Burrow | CIN | 236 | -9 | 56.1 | QB29 |
| 17 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 234 | -11 | 164.9 | QB21 |
| 18 | Bryce Young | CAR | 233 | -13 | — | QB19 |
| 19 | T7Sam Darnold | SEA | 232 | -13 | 152.4 | QB14 |
| 20 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 232 | -14 | 69.5 | QB34 |
| 21 | Brock Purdy | SF | 227 | -19 | 88.8 | QB23 |
| 22 | T8Jordan Love | GB | 224 | -22 | 153.2 | QB15 |
| 23 | Cam Ward | TEN | 224 | -22 | — | QB22 |
| 24 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 218 | -28 | — | QB24 |
| 25 | T9Daniel Jones | IND | 202 | -44 | 169.2 | QB17 |
| 26 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 198 | -48 | 143.9 | QB38 |
| 27 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 193 | -53 | — | QB16 |
| 28 | T10Tua Tagovailoa | ATL | 188 | -58 | — | QB25 |
| 29 | Tyler Shough | NO | 173 | -72 | 144.8 | QB26 |
| 30 | Joe Flacco | CIN | 167 | -79 | — | QB27 |
| 31 | T11Kirk Cousins | LV | 166 | -80 | — | QB35 |
| 32 | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | 139 | -107 | — | QB32 |
| 33 | Russell Wilson | NYG | 136 | -110 | — | QB44 |
| 34 | T12Justin Fields | KC | 133 | -113 | — | QB28 |
| 35 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | 127 | -119 | — | QB31 |
| 36 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 116 | -130 | — | QB33 |
| 37 | T13Shedeur Sanders | CLE | 110 | -135 | — | QB37 |
| 38 | Jameis Winston | NYG | 100 | -146 | — | QB46 |
| 39 | Spencer Rattler | NO | 97 | -149 | — | QB36 |
| 40 | T14Mac Jones | SF | 92 | -153 | — | QB30 |
| 41 | Anthony Richardson | IND | 85 | -160 | — | QB70 |
| 42 | Tyrod Taylor | GB | 74 | -172 | — | QB42 |
| 43 | T15Dillon Gabriel | CLE | 68 | -178 | — | QB39 |
| 44 | Cooper Rush | BAL | 65 | -181 | — | QB64 |
| 45 | Carson Wentz | MIN | 63 | -183 | — | QB40 |
| 46 | T16Gardner Minshew | ARI | 61 | -184 | — | QB80 |
| 47 | Davis Mills | HOU | 61 | -185 | — | QB41 |
| 48 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | 57 | -189 | — | QB54 |
| 49 | T17Aidan O'Connell | LV | 56 | -190 | — | QB62 |
| 50 | Brady Cook | NYJ | 54 | -192 | — | QB52 |
| 51 | Malik Willis | MIA | 51 | -195 | 162.2 | QB43 |
| 52 | T18Tyler Huntley | BAL | 50 | -196 | — | QB47 |
| 53 | Jake Browning | TB | 49 | -197 | — | QB45 |
| 54 | Drew Lock | SEA | 47 | -199 | — | QB73 |
| 55 | T19Andy Dalton | PHI | 46 | -200 | — | QB58 |
| 56 | Philip Rivers | IND | 42 | -203 | — | QB50 |
| 57 | Riley Leonard | IND | 34 | -212 | — | QB48 |
| 58 | T20Joe Milton III | DAL | 33 | -213 | — | QB59 |
| 59 | Quinn Ewers | MIA | 33 | -213 | — | QB49 |
| 60 | Max Brosmer | MIN | 30 | -215 | — | QB61 |
| 61 | T21Tanner McKee | PHI | 30 | -216 | — | QB57 |
| 62 | Joshua Dobbs | NE | 29 | -217 | — | QB67 |
| 63 | Kenny Pickett | CAR | 27 | -219 | — | QB60 |
| 64 | T22Trey Lance | LAC | 24 | -222 | — | QB55 |
| 65 | Jimmy Garoppolo | LA | 22 | -224 | — | QB81 |
| 66 | Mitchell Trubisky | TEN | 20 | -226 | — | QB51 |
| 67 | T23Zach Wilson | NO | 20 | -226 | — | QB69 |
| 68 | Josh Johnson | CIN | 19 | -227 | — | QB53 |
| 69 | Chris Oladokun | KC | 15 | -231 | — | QB56 |
| 70 | T24Teddy Bridgewater | DET | 10 | -236 | — | QB65 |
| 71 | Jarrett Stidham | DEN | 8 | -237 | — | QB77 |
| 72 | Nick Mullens | JAX | 8 | -238 | — | QB75 |
| 73 | T25Brandon Allen | NYG | 7 | -239 | — | QB71 |
| 74 | Clayton Tune | GB | 6 | -240 | — | QB68 |
| 75 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | 6 | -240 | — | QB66 |
| 76 | T26Kyle Allen | BUF | 6 | -240 | — | QB79 |
| 77 | Brett Rypien | CIN | 6 | -240 | — | QB74 |
Data baseline from the projection models · refreshed 30 Aug 2026.
Per-game projections from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline, not a betting edge. Rookies without NFL production are placed by market ADP, not model-projected. For entertainment / draft research — 18+.
In 1-QB leagues the numbers still say wait: the projected gap between the QB10 and a late-round or waiver QB is the smallest positional drop-off in fantasy. Our board ranks by VOR, so the table itself tells you when a passer finally beats the best RB/WR left. The exceptions are the elite dual-threat QBs, whose rushing floor genuinely separates them — and Superflex leagues, where a second starting QB slot roughly doubles the position's scarcity and pushes QBs into the early rounds.
Scoring math: a rushing yard is worth 0.1 points against 0.04 per passing yard, and a rushing TD scores 6 against 4 for a passing TD. Rushing volume is also more stable week to week than TD passes, so a QB with a designed run role carries both a higher ceiling and a safer floor — that combination is exactly what the projection model rewards.
Because of replacement value. A QB projected for 350 points sounds huge, but if a freely available QB projects for 300, he only adds ~50 points over replacement. An RB projected for 280 with a 180-point replacement adds 100. VOR captures that scarcity, which is why the overall board drafts scarce RB/WR production before high-scoring but deep QB production.